Policy-to-Implementation Analysis

Translating decarbonization policy into real economic and operational consequences.

What this is

Decarbonization policy only matters if it changes real decisions.

International and regional frameworks—particularly those emerging from the IMO—are designed under uncertainty: uncertainty about future fuel prices, technology readiness, enforcement, and behavior. The result is that the intended effects of policy and its real-world impacts often diverge.

This work focuses on translating policy design into practical, decision-relevant insight—helping organizations understand what different rules are likely to mean in practice, not just in principle.

The policy gap

Policy frameworks are typically evaluated on ambition, fairness, or political feasibility. They are less often evaluated on:

  • How shipowners and charterers are likely to respond

  • How fuel price volatility interacts with compliance mechanisms

  • How uncertainty affects investment timing and risk allocation

  • What second-order impacts may emerge across fleets, ports, and regions

Without this analysis, policy discussions can drift away from the realities that ultimately determine outcomes.

How I engage

Policy-to-implementation analysis is typically project-based and analytical. I work by:

  • Developing models that connect policy mechanisms to economic and operational outcomes

  • Stress-testing assumptions under different fuel price, demand, and compliance scenarios

  • Exploring how design choices influence incentives and behavior

This work can support internal decision-making, external analysis, or preparatory work for engagement in policy forums—without requiring me to act as a policy representative.

What I typically help with

This work often includes:

  • Independent modeling of IMO decarbonization frameworks and mid-term measures

  • Quantifying the impact of policy design choices under fuel-price and market uncertainty

  • Exploring adoption pathways and timing effects across fleets and trades

  • Identifying second-order economic and operational impacts

  • Translating analytical results into clear, decision-ready insight

The focus is always on what policies are likely to do, not just what they are intended to do.

What this is not

To be clear, this role is not:

  • Representing organizations at the IMO

  • Lobbying or advocacy

  • Legal or regulatory interpretation

  • Policy endorsement

My contribution is analytical and independent, intended to support more informed decision-making.

What success looks like

When policy-to-implementation analysis is effective:

  • Policy discussions are grounded in realistic assumptions

  • Trade-offs and uncertainties are explicit

  • Decision-makers understand how different actors are likely to respond

  • Fewer unintended consequences emerge during implementation

Often, the value shows up not as certainty—but as better questions and clearer choices.

When this is a good fit

This type of work is most valuable when:

  • You are evaluating or comparing decarbonization policy options

  • Uncertainty around fuel prices, adoption timing, or enforcement matters

  • You want insight into likely real-world impacts, not advocacy positions

  • Analytical rigor is more useful than declarative answers

It is less useful when positions are already fixed or when analysis is sought primarily for validation.

Interested in policy analysis grounded in implementation reality?

If you’re working on or around shipping decarbonization policy and want a clearer view of how rules are likely to play out in practice, I’m happy to explore whether this type of analysis could be helpful.

Get in touch